Browsing by Author "Patience Atuhura"

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    Effect of Oil Price Changes on Uganda's Economic Growth
    (Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-14) Patience Atuhura
    Oil price changes have been considered as a major factor that affects economic growth of Uganda hence this research is intended to investigate the effects of oil price changes on Uganda's economic growth (2003-2022) using economic indicators such as core inflation rate, real exchange rate and oil price index well as several scientific studies and economic theories suggest a neutral, positive but mostly negative relationship between oil price changes and economic growth depending on whether it’s an oil importing or oil exporting state since the effects differ greatly. In order to analyze a 20-year time series data set of oil prices and economic growth expressed as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 2003 to 2022, that was collected from the World Bank data site and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development Site, the quantitative research approach was applied where econometric analysis and vector autoregressive analysis so as to. The study's conclusions showed a significant relationship between annual oil price sales and Uganda's Gross domestic product, core inflation rate, real exchange rates plus oil price index though an inverse relationship was observed between annual oil sales and core inflation plus gross domestic product. The study then recommends fuel stabilization, fund and reserve to help in controlling oil price shocks that may be backed by supply shocks plus the monetary policy should be tailored to inflation expectations caused by oil price shocks especially the contradictory monetary policy so as to reduce inflationary tendencies, diversification of energy sources so as to reduce the effect of oil price shocks to the economy and the dependence of crude oil as the only source of energy.