Managing supply chain risks amid geopolitical conflicts with insights from Ugandan Cross-border Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)
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Date
2026-05-07
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Uganda Christian University
Abstract
This study examined how Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) engaged in cross-border trade in Uganda manage supply chain risks arising from geopolitical conflicts. SMEs play a critical role in Uganda’s economy however, their operations are highly vulnerable to disruptions such as border closures, tariff increases and currency fluctuations caused by regional and global conflicts. The study was guided by the Supply Chain Resilience Theory, focusing on three key
capabilities namely absorption, anticipation, and recovery. A qualitative exploratory research design was adopted to gain in-depth insights into the lived experiences of SMEs operating in key border regions. Primary data were collected through semi structured interviews with eleven purposively selected participants, including SME owners, logistics supervisors and cross-border trade coordinators. The thematic analysis was used to analyze the data analysis with the help of ATLAS.ti, where it is possible to identify the common patterns and themes. The results showed that buffering strategies used by SMEs like maintaining safety stock are highly relied on to accommodate disruptions but the methods are costly in terms of finance. Informal information networks such as peer traders largely drive the anticipation of risks and online communication systems, because of the lack of credible formal early-warning systems. Regarding recovery, the SMEs embrace flexible and adaptive mechanisms like supplier replacing, mobile transactions using mobile money, short term borrowing and using more than one currency to deal with financial instability brought about by currency fluctuations. Nonetheless, these resilience strategies are largely reactive, circumscribed by structural problems like high transportation expenses, red tape and inadequate availability of funds. The paper finds that although adaptive capacity of Ugandan cross-border SMEs is great, their systemic strength is still constrained by the external systemic influences. It recommends the enhancement of institutional backing, enhancement of trade infrastructure and creation of formal information
systems to enhance SME resilience and sustainability in volatile geopolitical environments
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Undergraduate