Bachelor of Science in Economics and Statistics

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https://scholar.ucu.ac.ug/handle/20.500.12311/88

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AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC DEBT ON EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN UGANDA FOR A PERIOD OF 53 YEARS (1970-2023)
(UGANDA CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY, 2024-09-06) BIDALI BOSCO
Uganda, like other developing countries, has been experiencing a rising trend in public debt, raising concerns among the public about its implications on economic variables influencing economic welfare. Notably, Uganda's exchange rate has exhibited a depreciating and volatile trend since 1970 to date, detrimental to economic growth. This study empirically investigates the effects of public debt on exchange rate volatility in Uganda from the period 1970 to 2023. This study examines the short run and long run relationship between external debt, debt servicing non external debt, foreign reserves, and exchange rates using an ARDL-ECM model. The findings disclose that external debt has an insignificant positive effect in the short run and an insignificant negative effect in the long run. In contrast, external debt service has an insignificant positive effect in the long run, meanwhile foreign reserves have a significant negative effect in the long run and a positive relationship in the short run. Based on these findings, the government should prioritize maintaining stable foreign reserves to mitigate exchange rate volatility in the short and long run. Additionally, prudent debt management and investing public debt in high-multiplier projects can enhance Uganda's capacity to repay debts and interest charges. Furthermore, concessional loans are more suitable for developing economies like Uganda.
Factors Determining the Ability and Willingness to Pay for University Accommodation by Uganda Christian University Students.
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-09-10) Kasande Rachael
This dissertation explores the complex realm of the factors determining the demand and willingness to pay for hostel fees among students at Uganda Christian University (UCU). The research focuses on three primary objectives: financial capacity, socio-demographic factors, and perceived values and preferences. Through a quantitative, predictive, cross-sectional survey design, a cross-sectional survey was used to obtain data from multiple sources at one point in time, data was collected from a sample of students residing in key hostels in and around UCU, such as Sabiiti, Nsibambi, Premium, and Sky Courts. The findings reveal that financial capacity (B=2.412, T=-2.861, P=0.005), socio-demographic factors (B=0.488, T=4.333, P=0.000) and perceived value and preferences (B=0.260, T=2.525, P=0.013) all significantly determine the demand and willingness to pay for university accommodation. Financial capacity having a significant negative relationship indicates that the demand and willingness to pay for university accommodation decreases as one's financial capacity decreases. Although many students benefit from adequate financial support from family or other sources, a significant portion still experiences financial insecurity, impacting their ability to afford hostel fees. Socio-demographic factors, particularly overall health and family support, emerged as critical in shaping students' housing decisions, while cultural and social backgrounds were less influential. The regression analysis yielded an Adjusted R square value of 0.200(20%) and an R square value of 0.219(21.9%) indicating that 20% of the variance in demand for university accommodation is explained by financial capacity, socio-demographic factors, and perceived value and preferences. Among the individual factors, socio-demographic factors emerged as the strongest predictor explaining a significant portion of the variance in demand. Additionally, perceived values, such as safety, security, and the convenience of accommodation location, were identified as top priorities too for students significantly influencing student choices, with moderate satisfaction reported regarding the overall quality and value of the available accommodation options. The study concludes that enhancing financial support systems, improving accommodation safety and convenience, and addressing the perceived value of hostel facilities are essential for better aligning UCU’s housing offerings with student needs. These findings contribute to the existing literature by highlighting the unique context of UCU students and providing actionable recommendations for university housing policy. Future research should explore the long-term impacts of financial and housing policy interventions on student well-being and academic success.
Analysis of the Effect of Direct Foreign Investment on Economic Growth and Development in Uganda 1990–2024
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-09-30) Denis Kizza
The research analyzed the impact of FDI on Economic Growth and Development in Uganda, using data from 1990 to 2024. The objectives of the study are: to investigate the current level of FDI inflow and recent trends in Uganda, to ascertain the motives and factors underlying the flow of FDI, and to determine the impact of FDI on the employees of Uganda. Qualitative is the research design adopted for the study. The research relied heavily on secondary sources of data so as to comprehend the trends, motives, and impacts of FDI on the economy of Uganda. Secondary data included reports obtained from UIA, BoU, World Bank, and scholarly articles targeted towards attaining a deep understanding of the subject matter.The findings from the study showed that; the trends and patterns of FDI in Uganda underpin the rapidly changing face of foreign investments within the country. Despite the fact that Uganda has made available considerable opportunities for FDI over the past three decades, the investment patterns have been asymmetric, both in sectoral distribution and regional impact (Kragelund, 2007). The fact alone that FDI is concentrated in urban centers and in some sectors, such as services, renders inclusive and sustainable economic growth challenging. Moreover, the volatility of FDI inflows, exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, raised the need to devise an investment strategy more resilient and diversified-one that could stand up against external shocks. These will include factors such as the following: strategic location of Uganda within the East Africa region, which was a key consideration; social and developmental motivations; abundant natural resources, especially in agriculture and extractive industries; investment climate and policy environment of Uganda; and global economic trends and strategies of MNCs. The impact of FDI on employment in Uganda indicates that FDI has been a strong driver of employment, basically in the manufacturing, agriculture, and services sectors. There existed a strong positive correlation between FDI and actual employment. This high correlation suggests that with an increase in the FDI inflows, actual employment also tends to increase considerably. Conclusion Essentially, the government of Uganda has to adjust its regulatory framework in a more satisfactory way to attract sustainable FDI.It should be a relatively sound initiative, since it makes the bureaucratic requirements more straightforward and reduces corruption, especially with special incentives to attract investment in less-developed areas. With these initiatives, the government would make sure that FDI contributes more to inclusive economic growth: deals with gaps between regions through quality job creation across the country. In addition, policy orientation toward these sectors is needed, answering to Uganda's long-term development needs-for example, renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.
Assessment of Financial Management and Resource Allocation in the Parish Development Model of Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-08-27) Esther Nakabugo
The study established the assessment of financial management and resource allocation in the Parish development model. a case study of Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. It specifically focused on; examining the relationship between the number of years worked (level of experience) in an organization and how it leads to successful factors of financial management, finding out the relationship between best practices that can be adopted in financial management and the level of experience. The study was carried out using a descriptive research design where both quantitative and qualitative research approaches were also used. The data was collected using questionnaires and interviews during the data collection, both purposive and simple random sampling methods were used. A sample size of 39 respondents who are management and employees from MOFPED was also used in the study. The data was analyzed using Chi-square statistics with the help of SPSS version 20. From the study findings using chi-square statistics highlight the intricate interplay between level of experience and the factors to be considered for successful financial management and resources allocation together with the best practices that should be adopted for financial management. Lastly, the study recommended that the government of Uganda should prioritize creating and promoting precise frameworks for financial management that emphasize creating quantifiable targets and putting in place reliable financial control mechanisms
The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment Stability in Uganda: A Case Study of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MOFPED)
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-06-19) Nathan Mwebesa
The study established the effects of fiscal policy on employment stability in Uganda: acase study of Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development. It specifically focused on; examining the relationship between taxation and job creation in Uganda, finding out the relationship between public investments and unemployment in Uganda and examining the relationship between government spending and labor force participation in Uganda. The study was carried out using a cross sectional survey research design where both quantitative and qualitative research approaches were also used. The data was collected using questionnaires and interviews during the data collection, both purposive and simple random sampling methods were used. A sample size of 44 respondents who are management and employees from MOFPED was also used in the study. The data was anlysed using Chi-square statistics with the help of SPSS version 20. From the study findings using chi-square statistics highlight the intricate interplay between taxation, public investments, government spending, and their impact on job creation and labor force participation in Uganda. While taxation is perceived as a deterrent to job creation, it was majorly revealed that there’s optimism regarding the potential of tax policy reforms, especially in reducing payroll taxes, to positively influence employment. Therefore, it can majorly be concluded that taxation, public investment and government spending have a great impact on employment stability in Uganda. Lastly, the study recommended a multi-pronged approach to improve Uganda’s employment situation. This includes tax breaks for businesses to encourage job creation, along with increased government spending in key areas like education, healthcare, and technology.
Examining government intervention in renewable energy adoption in Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2024) Octavia Japians Oloka
This report, based off secondary data, simply entails the history of renewable energy in Uganda as well as globally. This is with the intention of shading light on the status and potential of renewable energy in the different sectors of the economy in respect to the role played by the government of Uganda then and now. Alongside this are recommendations that may be of use to policy makers, researchers, investors, stakeholders and so on.
Impact of Electricity Generation on the Socio-Economic Situation in Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-06-11) Mwebaza Joel Turiho
This research investigates the socioeconomic impact of electricity generation in Uganda, focusing on three critical dimensions: Gross Domestic Product, industry sector performance, and unemployment. Utilizing time series data collected for 15 years (2006 to 2023) from the World Bank and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. In order to analyze the 15-year timeseries data set, a quantitative research approach was utilized. The study employs econometric analysis among which is regression in order to uncover the relationships between electricity generation and these socioeconomic parameters. The findings of reveal a significant positive correlation between electricity generation and both GDP growth and industrial sector performance, underscoring the essential role of energy infrastructure in fostering economic development and industrial expansion. However, the findings do indicate no statistically significant relationship between electricity generation and unemployment, suggesting that other factors, such as education, economic policies, and labor market conditions, play more pivotal roles in influencing employment levels. Based on these results, the study concludes with policy recommendations emphasizing the need for sustained investment in energy infrastructure, promotion of renewable energy sources, and comprehensive strategies that link energy policies with broader socioeconomic objectives to achieve sustainable economic development.
Factors Determining Demand for Consumer Goods Among Urban Refugees
(Uganda Christian University, 2024-06-11) Immaculate A Niyonsaba
This dissertation investigates the factors determining demand for consumer goods among urban refugees.. Through a comprehensive analysis of data collected from a sample population, the study examines remittance patterns, utilization, and their impact on household well-being. The findings reveal diverse sources and frequencies of remittance inflows, with significant contributions to meeting essential expenses and supporting income-generating activities. Remittance-receiving households exhibit higher levels of income, food security, and access to education and healthcare services compared to non-recipient households. Despite challenges such as high transaction costs and limited financial literacy, remittances play a crucial role in enhancing the socio-economic resilience and long-term prospects of urban refugee households. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics shaping refugee livelihoods and underscore the importance of targeted interventions to optimize the impact of remittance in poverty alleviation efforts.
Contribution of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises to Ugandas' GDP
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-13) Samuel Lou Mono
The purpose of the study was to examine the contribution of small and Medium-sized enterprises to Uganda’s GDP focusing on the Number of SMEs, their tax earnings, employment opportunities created, and revenue generate from their exports. The objectives of the study were to determine the relationship between the number of SMEs and the GDP of Uganda. The second objective was to evaluate the influence of SMEs’ tax contribution on Uganda’s GDP. The third objective was to explore the link between SMEs’ employment generation and Uganda’s GDP. The Last objective was to examine the influence of SMEs’ export earning on Uganda’s GDP The study used a cross sectional and descriptive study design to conduct the study in the whole of Uganda. Secondary data from UBOS was used to describe the contribution of SMEs to Uganda’s GDP. Findings revealed that SMEs has a positive contribution to Uganda’s GDP after studying their number, tax earnings, employment created and their export earnings. This has culminated into the widening of the GDP of Uganda. The study recommends that SMEs need to employ professionals to manage their businesses this will improve on GDP performance since these will establish and strengthen the internal controls as regards financial resources to reduce on mismanagement and misappropriations. Additionally, widening markets and innovation to boost exports and tax earnings should be enhanced by SMEs while Government should provide incentives and infrastructures to SMEs to boost their performance. Lastly, the study is limited to number of SMEs, their tax revenues; employment opportunities created, and export earnings. This is due to resource and time constraint during the study. Researchers can widen their knowledge on SMEs by studying the impact of SMEs growth on the environment, and the challenges faced by SMEs.
Estimating the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in stimulating Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries: A Case Study of Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-14) Masiko Bakainaga Niwagaba
The relationship between the business cycle and government policy is at the core of economics regardless of which school of thought an economist subscribes to. More recently a large magnitude of economic shocks has been seen which have induced government intervention. With this the size of governments has risen drastically, eliciting greater debate on the necessity of large government budgets. This paper characterises the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on economic activity in Uganda in the period between 2000-2020. It approaches this by using a structural vector autoregression study approach. It endeavours to estimate the size of fiscal and tax multipliers through this method, using secondary data capturing measurements of economic indicators for Uganda. Objective One, determining the size of the multiplier effect of government expenditure, revealed that there are small but positive effects that government expenditure has on stimulating economic activity. The coefficient for the lagged value for government expenditure on current income (GDP) was found to be 0.198. This means that for every 1 unit increase in government expenditure, there is a correspondent 0.198 increase in GDP. This goes against conventional Keynesian economics of the fiscal multiplier, which asserts that increases in net government expenditure raises the total GDP by more than the amount of the increase. It has been found here that the multiplier effect is less than 1 for government expenditure, while it is -0.3 for tax multiplier. Objective Two, which examined the government’s ability to impact an economy’s business cycle through expenditure. Through the Impulse Response Function, it can be seen how GDP would respond to an unexpected shock in government expenditure or taxation, as it traces the dynamic impact to a system of a “shock” or change to an input. The Impulse Reaction Functions reveal that in the immediate term changes in government and tax do not have very large impact, but as time increases the impact gradually increase. This shows that changes in fiscal policy are not the only Objective Three aimed to establish the ideal fiscal policy stance based on the results of the study. This conclusion is arrived at by considering the results of the two prior objectives. Given that multipliers are small and do not have substantial impact on the business cycle. It is ideal for government to adopt a laissez faire policy stance. This is one where government tends not to intervene in the market limiting the government expenditure in order to prop up the economy. However, in order to fix the existing budgetary deficit, it is ideal that government increase taxation in order to return to a surplus. In conclusion, this research offers great insight into the fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that impact of expansionary fiscal policy does not have as great an impact as expected, this could be because of the impact of rational expectations. As government increases in size, the private sector sees this and shrinks in size in order to accommodate the government. This is why government expenditure is often inefficient in impacting the business cycle and large amounts are required in order to stabilize the country.
Assessing the Economic Factors Affecting the Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises in Uganda: The Case Study of Selected SMEs in Mukono Municipality
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-20) Gordon Ssebudde
This study examines the economic factors affecting the growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Uganda. SMEs play a crucial role in driving economic development, job creation, and poverty reduction in the country. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing SME growth, this research examines the impact of access to finance, market dynamics, and human capital development on the growth of SMEs. The research involved collecting data from a diverse sample of SMEs in Uganda, encompassing various sectors, ownership structures, and sizes. The analysis of this data provides valuable insights into the specific challenges and opportunities facing SMEs in Uganda's unique business environment. The study's findings challenge the conventional belief that access to finance is the primary determinant of SME growth. While financial resources are important, other contextual factors, including accessibility to financial institutions, borrowing costs, and the suitability of financial products, may moderate their impact. Consequently, SMEs are encouraged to adopt a more holistic approach to growth, encompassing market responsiveness and human capital development. Market dynamics emerged as a critical factor significantly influencing SME growth. Enterprises that adeptly adapt to changes in customer preferences, anticipate market shifts, and make necessary adjustments experience higher growth rates. Furthermore, the competitive landscape significantly influences pricing decisions, emphasizing the importance of market awareness and responsiveness. Contrary to expectations, human capital development did not exhibit a statistically significant effect on SME growth in Uganda. This suggests that SMEs should critically assess their human resource strategies to ensure alignment with their growth objectives. Optimizing human resource practices to unlock the full potential of employees may be more critical than merely having a skilled workforce. In conclusion, SMEs in Uganda have the potential to drive economic growth, but addressing disparities in access to financial resources, enhancing adaptability to market dynamics, and optimizing human capital development is crucial. Policymakers, business support organizations, and SME owners should collaborate to create an enabling environment that fosters SME growth. Targeted financial interventions, market information dissemination, and investments in education and skills development are recommended to nurture SME growth and contribute to Uganda's economic development. This study provides valuable insights for future research and informs policies and strategies aimed at supporting the resilience and growth of SMEs in Uganda.
The Impact of Land Prices on Real Estate Business Development in Uganda: A Case Study of Mukono District
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-20) Boniface Shisa
The study intends to analyze the impact of land prices on the development of real estate businesses in Uganda: a case study of the Mukono district. The study was directed by three objectives: identifying successful price approaches used in land business, analyzing pricing's impact on buyer behavior, and investigating the pricing function in real estate business development in Mukono. The researcher used an explanatory research design and a quantitative research approach. Stratified sampling was used to obtain a sample of 50 respondents who were real estate stakeholders in Mukono district, such as real estate agents/brokers, government officials/urban planners, real estate developers, and real estate investors, though only 44 of these respondents responded to the questionnaires. According to the study findings, rising land prices have had a significant impact on various aspects of the real estate industry in Uganda, as it is clear that the real estate sector's economic contributions to Uganda's GDP are both substantial and susceptible to change if the trend of rising land prices continues. Furthermore, it was discovered that rising land prices have had a perceptible impact on overall demand for real estate properties in Uganda, with various market sectors witnessing notable fluctuations in demand as a result of land price dynamics. Inclusively, the data indicated the multidimensional character of pricing dynamics in the local real estate environment, revealing that government land use rules have a key effect in pricing dynamics. In conclusion, the study advised that real estate industry stakeholders in Mukono use personalized pricing methods. The study also advised that government officials in Mukono engage in active participation and proactive planning. Furthermore, the report advocated for the establishment of targeted affordable housing measures in Mukono. These initiatives should include a variety of tactics, such as subsidies, developer incentives, and novel finance mechanisms.
The Impact of COVID on the Performance of Uganda's Capital and Current Accounts
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-21) Rachel Rovincer Namatende
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused one of the greatest economic decays in the history of humankind. Its effects are far-reaching, and even to date, we have yet to fully recognise/realise how bad the situation was or how best we can evolve to deal with the mayhem it caused. Hence, this study aimed to identify how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the performance of Uganda’s current and capital accounts. Several indicators were considered for this study, including imports and exports, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), Capital flows, trade patterns and restrictions, and the new policy changes implemented. In order to analyse these time series data sets gathered from secondary data sources such as the World Bank, Bank of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, as well as other key players for the period before, during and after the pandemic, a quantitative research approach was applied where econometric analysis and linear regression where used. The study's conclusions showed a significant relationship between COVID-19 and Uganda's economic disruptions and recommended possible measures for dealing with such divergences should they rise again.
Digital Financial Inclusion and the Sales Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in Mukono Municipality.
(Uganda Christian University, 2023) Annmarie Atuhaire
The study sought to examine the effect of digital financial inclusion on the sales performance of small and medium enterprises in Mukono Municipality. The study was guided by three objectives: examining the contribution of mobile phone banking on the performance of SMEs, establishing the contribution of internet banking on the sales performance of SMEs and finding out the contribution of agency banking on the performance of SMEs in Mukono Municipality. The study was carried out using cross-sectional survey research design where quantitative research approach was utilized. Stratified sampling method was used to get a sample of 44 respondents who were SME owners of the selected businesses dealing in boutiques, saloons, stationary bureaus, garages, restaurants, bars groceries and agricultural products in Kauga, Mukono Municipality and these responded to the questionnaires that were used to collect data. The findings of this study collectively emphasize the significant and positive impact of digital financial inclusion, including mobile phone banking, internet banking, and agency banking, on the sales performance of SMEs in Mukono Municipality. Business owners in the region recognize the convenience, efficiency, and security offered by these banking channels, which not only streamline financial operations but also reduce costs. The strong and positive correlations between each form of digital banking and SMEs’ sales performance, as evidenced by Pearson's correlation analysis, underscore the vital role these services play in enhancing business performance. These findings emphasize the growing importance of enhancing digital financial inclusion in supporting the growth and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Mukono Municipality and potentially in similar contexts elsewhere. Finally, the study recommended that policymakers and financial institutions should actively promote digital financial services through awareness campaigns and incentives. Investing in financial literacy programs is crucial to empower SMEs in effectively using these services. Collaboration between stakeholders, including government and telecom providers, should focus on improving network infrastructure.
Assessing the Relationship Between Budgetary Interventions and Agricultural Sectoral Performance: A Case Study of Agricultural Productivity in Uganda.
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-22) Noel Mirembe Mutesi
This abstract provides a concise overview of the economic rationale for government intervention in an economy, with a focus on the context of Uganda. Government intervention is examined through the lens of correcting market failures, promoting economic stability, and ensuring equitable resource distribution. The discussion highlights key factors such as infrastructure development, agricultural sectoral promotion, and budgetary interventions. Additionally, the role of government in providing access to education, healthcare, and financial stability is explored. The abstract underscores the importance of well-designed interventions to strike a balance between market forces and government action for sustainable economic development in Uganda.
The Effectiveness of Revenue Collection Methods and Its Impact on the Quality of Services Delivered in Mukono District Local Government
(Uganda Christian University, 2023) Sharon Nabakeni
The study delves into the relationship between local revenue collection methods and service delivery within the context of Mukono district local government. A total of 44 questionnaires were distributed to staff members and community members, achieving a commendable response rate of 91.32%. The respondents' background information were analyzed, revealing a predominantly youthful population aged 18-25 years, a majority of females, and a prevalence of individuals with degree-level education. Moreover, a significant portion of the respondents was indirectly engaged in revenue collection. The study focused on the dependent variable, as services delivered conceptualized as the quality of services delivered by Mukono local government. Findings indicated that respondents were dissatisfied with the current state of services and that revenue collection did not significantly contribute to service improvement. In examining revenue collection methods, the study identified cash payments and third-party processors as prevalent approaches. Additionally, the acceptance of credit card payments and online methods for revenue collection was reported. Incentives for prompt payment and tax compliance were also in use. A multiple linear regression analysis was performed to assess the impact of education level, revenue collection methods, and revenue collection challenges on service delivery. The results indicated that only revenue collection methods and revenue collection challenges significantly influenced service delivery, while education level did not have a significant impact. The study further explored the challenges faced by the revenue authority in collecting taxes, revealing inefficiencies in the revenue collection process, challenges related to tax evasion and non-compliance, a lack of transparency, ethical concerns, and a low level of tax compliance.In conclusion, this study underscores the importance of revenue collection methods and addressing revenue collection challenges to enhance service delivery in Mukono local government. It recommends measures such as expanding the tax base, increased sensitization, timely accountability, transparency, and identifying additional revenue sources. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners in local government administration. For future research, it is suggested to explore revenue generation, collection, and allocation across different local governments, investigate various sources of local revenue in Mukono, and explore strategies for expanding the local revenue base.
Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations and their Effects on Trade in the Last Five Years (2018–2022) in Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-26) Kartin Baguma
The study aimed at examining the effect of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on trade in the last five years (2018-2022) in Uganda. The study was guided by objectives which included: establishing the current state of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on trade in Uganda from 2018-2022, examining the short and long run effects of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on trade in the last five years in Uganda and determining the key drivers behind the observed foreign exchange rate fluctuations in Uganda and their implications for the country’s trade competitiveness. The study used secondary data in order to achieve the stated research objective. The data was obtained from Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda. Trade was analyzed with the foreign exchange rate fluctuations for the period of five years (2018-2022). The research findings based on extensive secondary data analysis in Uganda shed light on the intricate dynamics of foreign exchange rate fluctuations and their profound impact on trade and the economy from 2018 to 2022. These findings underscored the significance of a stable exchange rate for trade competitiveness and economic stability. While Uganda has made progress in managing its balance of payments, controlling inflation, and adjusting interest rates, persistent challenges such as forex market regulation, export performance, and the implications of an ambitious infrastructure program persist. Addressing these challenges effectively is imperative for Uganda to navigate foreign exchange rate fluctuations, enhance trade competitiveness, and promote long-term economic resilience. Finally, the study recommended a comprehensive strategy for Uganda to manage foreign exchange rate fluctuations effectively. This included diversifying exports and adding value to reduce reliance on volatile commodities, strengthening forex market regulation, maintaining stable monetary policies, and carefully managing infrastructure projects. Improving export quality, monitoring the current account balance, reviewing forex market regulations, fostering collaboration, and attracting foreign investment are also key. Prudent infrastructure investment, exploring forex-friendly financing, and avoiding undue pressure on forex reserves are essential considerations.
Evaluation of Public Policy Solutions for Graduate Unemployment in Uganda: A Case Study of Uganda
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-26) Tisha Mpanga
Unemployment rates and the unemployment situation in Uganda has continuously been an area of concern as an economic indicator that has not reflected growth along with the economic growth rates Uganda has been experiencing in the recent past. Moreover, what is counter-intuitive is the fact that unemployment rate for Uganda’s post-secondary graduates is reportedly as high as 80 percent, which is one of the highest globally. This raises questions with as to what policy interventions have been done to avert the problem, and reasons as to why despite being educated, Ugandans continue to grapple with high rates of unemployment and under employment. The purpose of this study was therefore to identify and evaluate policies and solutions that have been implemented with the aim of reducing graduate unemployment in Uganda and recommend methods that can be used to enhance these policies to better address the problem. In order to carry out the policy evaluation, two sample policies were identified along with reports on their objectives their purpose and their achievements in quantitative and qualitative forms. Generalized criteria was assembled with the aim to impartially assess the ability of the two policies to address graduate unemployment and the extent to which they were successful at doing so. The two policies namely the Youth Livelihood Programme and The Uganda Skills Development Programme were evaluated against the criteria on the basis of the certified publications reports and statistics regarding the two policies. It was concluded that overall, the policies may have been somewhat successful at achieving their specific objectives but were not as impactful at reducing graduate unemployment rates in Uganda; the effects have not yet been felt at a larger scale. Therefore, as a policy recommendation, both the policies in their second phases need to be more oriented with skill development, to address the skill mismatch that leads to graduate unemployment. Lastly, the Uganda Skills Development Programme needs to be extended to more tertiary institutions to have a greater impact on the labor force and increase the chances of reducing graduate unemployment in Uganda.
The Effects of Monetary Policy on Households’ Consumption Decisions in Uganda.
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-10-02) Derius Emma Bwire
This paper examined if monetary policies significantly affect households’ consumption decisions in Uganda. Monetary policies; actions taken by a central bank or other monetary authorities to manage the supply and demand of money and credit in an economy. Its primary objective being to promote price stability and sustainable economic growth. The effects of monetary policies (independent variables); interest rates, exchange rates, money supply and cash reserve ratio, and other economic indicators that may influence households’ consumption decisions such as; Economic outlook, savings, investment, inflation, and employment rates in Uganda were studied. The study adopted both descriptive and analytical research designs. Secondary data was used. The data used was captured by the central bank of Uganda and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics to better understand the in-depth changes in data. The data summary and analysis was done using STATA 15.0 to produce inferential statistics regression analysis to determine the relationships between the dependent and independent variables. From the data analyses conducted, it was evident that there was no significant effect of monetary policies on households’ consumption decisions as the hypothesis of the study states. This was further examined and we found out that, on a larger extent, only 1% of monetary policy impacts on the economy can directly inflict households’ consumption decisions. An inverse relationship between household consumption decisions and impact of monetary policy in the economy was observed, this also applied to the relationship between household consumption decisions and monetary policy effectiveness in the economy.
The Impact of Trade Policy on Uganda's Coffee Export Growth Rate
(Uganda Christian University, 2023-09-14) Belind Lucy Aketit
International trade has been considered as an important tool to boost the economic growth of Uganda and achieve its aspirations (A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country by 2040). This research was intended to investigate the effect of trade policy on Uganda's coffee export growth rate and the ultimate impact on economic growth (1995 - 2015). Several scientific research, and some economic theories, advocate a positive relationship between trade and economic growth. This study aimed to examine the impact of Tariff barriers, Non-Tariff Barriers, and Free Trade Policy on Uganda’s coffee export growth rate and the ultimate impact on the economic growth of Uganda. In order to analyze a 20-year time series of data on coffee export growth and economic growth expressed as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 1995 to 2015 that was collected from the World Bank databases, the quantitative research approach was applied. The impact of tariff Barriers, Non-Tariff Barriers, and Free Trade Policy on Uganda’s Coffee Exports wasexamined using econometric analysis and Ordinary Least Square linear regression. The study's conclusions showed a significant and positive relationship between Uganda's coffee export growth rate (GDP), Tariff Barriers by Uganda, and Free Trade Policy. However, they also showed a negative relationship between coffee export growth rate (GDP) and Non-Tariff Barriers imposed by other countries in the East African Community. The study recommends continuing to execute export- or import-led policies while promoting the BUBU in Uganda initiative, the National export strategy, and technology to add value to coffee exports and as well as diversify Ugandan exports in general.

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